Munger’s classic speech in 1995 at the Harvard Law School is the quintessential example of the multitude of his mental models. In it Mr. Munger describes 24 “standard causes for human misjudgement” in separate, but then reminds us that these can combine to create potentially multiplied consequences. Since it can happen for good or bad, we’re better off informed and much smarter for the effort.
This 2008 article discusses red flags for Board members trying to detect fraud. For us the article doesn’t give nearly enough emphasis to incentives, but to correct that we’re linking to our Q4 2008 report excerpts. It’s vital to remember that one shouldn’t rely on checklist approaches to CG, fraud, stock research and pretty much anything else involving “systems” that are far from simple.
In the first of a series of posts, this one highlights the classic article by Robert Cialdini: “The Science of Persuasion”. It’s basically a 6-page summary for his must-read book “Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion”. We can’t stress enough how important the subject is – anyone interested in marketing, retail, personal relationships and, well, wants to reduce the risk of being tricked by a Madoff-like scheme should read this book.
A Harvard researcher says that Brazilian CG of about 100 years ago could teach the current-day US (and others) many lessons. What’s perhaps most interesting and thought-provoking: the provisions came from the companies themselves and surpassed – by far – the legal requirements at the time. We’re reminded of Saraiva, which instituted a tag-along provision long before the law demanded it.
A few (seemingly) random thoughts and quotes on misdirection, disorientation and how to benefit from it. If that doesn’t convince the reader to click on “read more”, there’s a Charlie Munger quotation inside worth the read.
The brazilian management of AB-InBev is surprising even americans for their fiercely-enforced operational efficiency measures. Their surprise is, well, surprising to us in light of what the same people did in Europe at Interbrew, and highlights the advantages of looking at companies globally.
A study shows that first-draft picks in the NFL usually underperform and don’t represent value for the money, but still teams fight for that spot thinking they will make the right choice. Overconfidence and inefficient markets happen anywhere – it’s only human.
Recent stories about the increased credit lines at BNDES highlight the issue of government spending. There have been many other initiatives that translate into increased spending, and one is reminded that this is an election year. The temptation to focus on the primary fiscal surplus could, for the less skeptic, hide the dangers of this growing spending binge.
